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Northeast

These Vibrio Predictive Models provide early warning of potential coastal hazards in the Northeast region, specifically including:


Long Island Sound

Long Island Sound
Doubling Times for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Long Island Sound Oysters

Doubling Time of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) in Long Island Sound Oysters

Vibro parahaemolyticus has one of the fastest growth rates of all estuarine bacteria, and the population can replace itself, or double every hour at 90°C. This product uses local NWS gridded forecasts of air temperature from the National Digital Forecast Database to force a statistical growth rate equation (USFDA 2005) for Vp. The spatially explicit graphical display allows users to determine where and when the highest doubling times will occur every hour, out to 7 days in advance to plan harvest and refrigeration strategies.

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Best Harvest Windows, Long Island Sound

Best Harvest Windows
The Vp doublings given different cooling strategies are shown for growing areas in Long Island Sound. These graphs allow users to determine where and when the highest doubling times will occur in advance to plan harvest and cooling strategies.

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NCOM Sea Surface Temperature in Long Island Sound

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Temperature is a major driver of Vibrio growth. In general, once water temperatures exceed 15°C, or 59°F growth will occur, with faster replication at higher temperatures. Because of the strong dependence on temperature for growth, SST is used in some cases to trigger harvest restrictions. This product provides 96 hr modeled guidance for SST for parts of the Long Island Sound.

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New Hampshire

New Hampshire
Doubling Times for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in New Hampshire Oysters

Doubling Time of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) in New Hampshire oysters

Vibrio parahaemolyticus has one of the fastest growth rates of all estuarine bacteria, and the population can replace itself, or double every hour at 90°F. This product uses surface air temperature from the National Digital Forecast Database to force a statistical growth rate equation for Vp. Forecasts are hourly for the first 36 hours, then every 3 hours until 72 hours and finally every 6 hours out to 7 days.

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Best Harvest Windows, New Hampshire
Best Harvest Windows

The Vp doublings given different cooling strategies are shown for growing areas in Little Bay and the Piscataqua River. Click over the Little Bay or Piscataqua River on the map to see a graph of Vp doublings in a growing area over the next 36 hours. These graphs allow users to determine where and when the highest doubling times will occur in advance to plan harvest and cooling strategies.

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Massachusetts

Massachusetts
Doubling Times for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Massachusetts Oysters

Doubling Time of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) in Massachusetts Oysters

Vibrio parahaemolyticus has one of the fastest growth rates of all estuarine bacteria, and the population can replace itself, or double every hour at 90°F. This product uses surface air temperature from the National Digital Forecast Database to force a statistical growth rate equation for Vp. Forecasts are hourly for the first 36 hours, then every 3 hours until 72 hours and finally every 6 hours out to 7 days.

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Best Harvest Windows, Massachusetts
Best Harvest Windows

The Vp doublings given different cooling strategies are shown for growing areas in Massachusetts. These graphs allow users to determine where and when the highest doubling times will occur in advance to plan harvest and cooling strategies.

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As a work in progress, current Vibrio models displayed here are considered experimental products, and thus NOAA will not be held liable from issues arising from their interpretation and use.